I Was Wrong

[PhishMonger84]

Nah, sheeple are a tight close herd no matter how wrong they are. What's funny is even after proven wrong they will do a complete 180 and then swear they were never wrong. Hypocrisy is a badge of honor in sheeple nation.

Oh boy, the projection is amazing. Dunning Kruger still lacking the ability to self-reflect.

 

[blaxsun]

I think it may be a bit more complicated. Imagine 80% of all car companies start making EVs only (it's likely going to be a lot more and very soon). The remaining are going to be those that only sell domestic (let's say Russia, some china brands and perhaps a few smaller brands in the US. In other words, those that can be profitable by only selling domestic). The oil various countries produces will now no longer export at all. The cost per gallon produced I will predict will go up quite a lot. The countries that produce oil control the price (OPEC). They will not allow their profits to go down with demand. Remember you still pay even if the pump price is the same but the government decides to give even bigger incentives. Or if the export market gets smaller.

This is actually much like the debate about apple vs USB-C as required by the EU. Perhaps not a great comparison, but a lot of people felt the EU should not dictate this (but obviously is their right as it's their market) and Apple should just pull out of the EU entirely. But of course they wont as it will hurt their profits and allow Android to take over. The same will happen with electric vs fossil cars.

I think it's a given that the vast majority of companies will eventually switch a significant portion of their manufacturing capability from gas/diesel over to electric/hybrids. Many of these are targeting 2030 or 2035 for this date. BMW (as one example) expects to hit 50% EV parity before their own 2030 deadline. I'm cautiously optimistic they will (the only caveat is the supply of lithium and cobalt).

On the other hand, if you look at a company like Toyota - they're so invested in the manufacturer of gas powered vehicles that they simply have no hope of achieving anything remotely close to that. There's obviously different economic realities between Toyota and BMW, price points and radically different leadership/mentalities at the helm - so I'm not trying to make an apples to apples comparison. Toyota has also publicly stated that they don't feel EVs are practical in the near future. Time will tell whether they're proven right.

Canada is a net oil exporter; the US is actually close to being a net oil exporter (again). Oil is not going to be an issues in North America - and neither country is a member of OPEC. Europe has no cheap and abundant access to oil (at least not with the current political situation with Russia), and having foregone nuclear power (a big mistake in my opinion) they're really between a rock and a hard place. I suspect natural gas will be the primary electricity generating option going forward for much of Europe.

 

[Kato]

I guess, as an American, I like my freedoms. I don't want to be told what kind of car to drive. I like cars, I like driving them, the way they sound, smell and feel. I don't want to drive a computer on wheels. Full disclosure; I also don't like all the "driver assistance" cheap their doing either. I paid more for my car to not have them. That said I'm all for clean electricity. But what's next, I can't have a bbq grill? Camp fire? Illegal to breathe too much? These ev's are pushed as the only solution and their far from it. And recycle all you want but when these cars show up at my shop with a 14 thousand dollar bill to replace the battery, I don't want any part to do with that. Imagine instead of 300$ every 3 or 4 years, its 15k every 10-12. You're ok being forced into that when there are other CLEAN fuels?

I'm not American, but I do live in the free world and also don't like to be told what to do (even if I didn't I still wouldn't like to be told what to do :). I think your example is good and I get it. But I have kids. I have also read the papers on how bad things are. I see how bad they are. Both where I live and other places. I'm sure we all look at the news. 99-100% of scientists agree its bad and our fault. I honestly would like to leave the planet in a better place vs when I arrived. Electric cars will not fix it though. It will be the sum of things. We all have to give up something to make this work. It will not be a free lunch. But I do respect each and everyone decides for themselves by the politicians they elect.

Re your cost example. All I can say is I've been driving an EV for 8 years and it saved me a ton of money. Really what allowed me to step up a tier car/safety wise. Is it true for all users? probably not. But for me it was. I'm guessing it is for most given the most sold car globally is an EV but I haven't looked at it in more detail than that honestly.

 

[blaxsun]

I guess, as an American, I like my freedoms. I don't want to be told what kind of car to drive. I like cars, I like driving them, the way they sound, smell and feel. I don't want to drive a computer on wheels. Full disclosure; I also don't like all the "driver assistance" crap their doing either. I paid more for my car to not have them. That said I'm all for clean electricity. But what's next, I can't have a bbq grill? Camp fire? Illegal to breathe too much? These ev's are pushed as the only solution and their far from it. And recycle all you want but when these cars show up at my shop with a 14 thousand dollar bill to replace the battery, I don't want any part to do with that. Imagine instead of 300$ every 3 or 4 years, its 15k every 10-12. You're ok being forced into that when there are other CLEAN fuels?

I've loved my gas cars, too - but none of them hold a candle to my EV. My i4 is the car I always dreamed of that I never expected to own in my lifetime. And it doesn't have a lot of this driver assistance crap. The difference between a Tesla and my BMW is that Tesla is an electric car company and my BWM just happens to be electric. But EVs aren't for everyone and every situation, and to further that point - we actually purchased a gas vehicle after our EV for long trips.

 

[Kato]

I think it's a given that the vast majority of companies will eventually switch a significant portion of their manufacturing capability from gas/diesel over to electric/hybrids. Many of these are targeting 2030 or 2035 for this date. BMW (as one example) expects to hit 50% EV parity before their own 2030 deadline. I'm cautiously optimistic they will (the only caveat is the supply of lithium and cobalt).

On the other hand, if you look at a company like Toyota - they're so invested in the manufacturer of gas powered vehicles that they simply have no hope of achieving anything remotely close to that. There's obviously different economic realities between Toyota and BMW, price points and radically different leadership/mentalities at the helm - so I'm not trying to make an apples to apples comparison. Toyota has also publicly stated that they don't feel EVs are practical in the near future. Time will tell whether they're proven right.

Canada is a net oil exporter; the US is actually close to being a net oil exporter (again). Oil is not going to be an issues in North America - and neither country is a member of OPEC. Europe has no cheap and abundant access to oil (at least not with the current political situation with Russia), and having foregone nuclear power (a big mistake in my opinion) they're really between a rock and a hard place. I suspect natural gas will be the primary electricity generating option going forward for much of Europe.

Yeah agree. Toyota is probably a company I personally would not want to invest in short term. I fear the reluctance to EVs will hit them hard (wasn't that why the CEO stepped down recently as well?). BMW I feel may be second. Test driving the i4, i5 and iX personally I would have expected them to build a new EV specific platform. It just sucks sitting in an EV and still having to deal with the tunnel in the back obstructing the middle seat. They do it to save money obviously and only having one platform they can share between EVs and fossil cars obviously.

Sorry not meaning to offend any BMW owners. Just my 2c. It can get heated quickly. Obviously the BMW has other advantages.

If I was a legacy car manufacturer I would be extremely concerned about the massive amount of Chinese EVs flooding the markets as we speak. I seem them all the time here

 

[Icryhard]

Sad story…. But hey, welcome to the I’ve been wrong and admitted club! I mean, we’ve all been wrong at some point.

No no no no. I haven’t been wrong, ever. I can’t be wrong. I’m 100% sure.

 

[Lasse]

Funny fact - Canada oil from oil sand emit 30% more CO2 compared with normal oil production already in the production phase ...........

I suggest propane, what's your opinion on that?

C3H8. will emit around 10 % lesser CO2 compared with gas and diesel cars. But the most disadvantage is that propan is a rest product from gasoline production - no gasoline production - no propane production

About EV battery lifetime

New Data: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last?

We get a lot of questions from our community about electric car batteries. That is partly because the cost of battery replacement is so high (more on that later), but it is also due to limited information.

www.recurrentauto.com

Sincerely Lasse

 

[blaxsun]

Yeah agree. Toyota is probably a company I personally would not want to invest in short term. I fear the reluctance to EVs will hit them hard (wasn't that why the CEO stepped down recently as well?). BMW I feel may be second. Test driving the i4, i5 and iX personally I would have expected them to build a new EV specific platform. It just sucks sitting in an EV and still having to deal with the tunnel in the back obstructing the middle seat. They do it to save money obviously and only having one platform they can share between EVs and fossil cars obviously.

Sorry not meaning to offend any BMW owners. Just my 2c. It can get heated quickly. Obviously the BMW has other advantages.

If I was a legacy car manufacturer I would be extremely concerned about the massive amount of Chinese EVs flooding the markets as we speak. I seem them all the time here

There's no "frunk" in any of the BMW EVs, either - which in all honesty doesn't really matter to me (there's a ton of space in the rear my i4 and even more in the i5 and iX). I completely understand why BMW is tiering their production line with both gas/diesel and EV/hybrid production rather than build a completely separate EV platform (as they did for the iX). It's one reason they've been able to shift and quickly ramp-up EV production.

One thing to consider is that I'm getting a tried and true BMW 4 Series sedan - it just so happens to be electric. If I get into an accident, it doesn't require any kind of exotic repairs like Tesla. My vehicle insurance is also quite a bit less than similarly-priced Teslas as well.

 

[Reefering1]

I've loved my gas cars, too - but none of them hold a candle to my EV. My i4 is the car I always dreamed of that I never expected to own in my lifetime. And it doesn't have a lot of this driver assistance crap. The difference between a Tesla and my BMW is that Tesla is an electric car company and my BWM just happens to be electric. But EVs aren't for everyone and every situation, and to further that point - we actually purchased a gas vehicle after our EV for long trips.

Those things are quick, that's for sure. I think the i8 looks like the batmobile, I like it. Maybe if they played engines sounds and were modifiable.. I just don't think we're there yet, or will be in next 7 years. I'm in FL, what happens when a hurricane hits and we don't have power for a week or 2? Everybody is stuck in their homes with no means to help themselves or families? To be mandated means if you don't go along you're stuck with a old car that you can't get parts to repair anymore.. feels like a control mechanism to me. I may be ignorant about alot if this, but I know when I'm losing my rights

 

[blaxsun]

About EV battery lifetime

Only time will tell. It's still too early to say what the useful lifespan will be. BMW is on their 5th generation batteries and working on their new 6th generation, and it's probably not that different for other car manufacturers.

 

[Kato]

There's no "frunk" in any of the BMW EVs, either - which in all honesty doesn't really matter to me (there's a ton of space in the rear my i4 and even more in the i5 and iX). I completely understand why BMW is tiering their production line with both gas/diesel and EV/hybrid production rather than build a completely separate EV platform (as they did for the iX). It's one reason they've been able to shift and quickly ramp-up EV production.

One thing to consider is that I'm getting a tried and true BMW 4 Series sedan - it just so happens to be electric. If I get into an accident, it doesn't require any kind of exotic repairs like Tesla. My vehicle insurance is also quite a bit less than similarly-priced Teslas as well.

Yeah from that angle it makes sense. As long as it continues to be the 'ultimate driving machine' they will be good. Where I live i'm surrounded by BMW lovers. I do like the handling too and in the end what matters to me is different from what matters to you when it come to a car.

I liked the iX.

 

[blaxsun]

Those things are quick, that's for sure. I think the i8 looks like the batmobile, I like it. Maybe if they played engines sounds and were modifiable.. I just don't think we're there yet, or will be in next 7 years. I'm in FL, what happens when a hurricane hits and we don't have power for a week or 2? Everybody is stuck in their homes with no means to help themselves or families? To be mandated means if you don't go along you're stuck with a old car that you can't get parts to repair anymore.. feels like a control mechanism to me. I may be ignorant about alot if this, but I know when I'm losing my rights

The i8 is quite an interesting hybrid, that's for certain. I'd definitely snag one if given the chance! You pretty much hit the nail on the head with respect to some of the stark realities we face in North America (weather, natural disasters, etc.) I know after the last hurricane that hit Florida there was quite a bit of concern about all the "ticking time bombs" in the form of saltwater-logged EVs.

 

[Kato]

Those things are quick, that's for sure. I think the i8 looks like the batmobile, I like it. Maybe if they played engines sounds and were modifiable.. I just don't think we're there yet, or will be in next 7 years. I'm in FL, what happens when a hurricane hits and we don't have power for a week or 2? Everybody is stuck in their homes with no means to help themselves or families? To be mandated means if you don't go along you're stuck with a old car that you can't get parts to repair anymore.. feels like a control mechanism to me. I may be ignorant about alot if this, but I know when I'm losing my rights

Gas pumps also require power btw. Paying for your gas requires electricity. Producing gas requires electiricy.
But I do agree there's work to be done to store electricity.

 

[PhishMonger84]

The i8 is quite an interesting hybrid, that's for certain. I'd definitely snag one if given the chance! You pretty much hit the nail on the head with respect to some of the stark realities we face in North America (weather, natural disasters, etc.) I know after the last hurricane that hit Florida there was quite a bit of concern about all the "ticking time bombs" in the form of saltwater-logged EVs.

I managed several locations including airports for car rental. One of my offices had the first level 3 charger in the state installed while i was managing that location at UMASS, this system would do 80% charge in 30 minutes, this was 2014. problem was all we had was Nissan leafs, which i'd argue are the worst of the EVs around.

When the leafs were sold, i had to transport them to our into/out of fleet lot- which was 55 miles away- in february. 2/5 cars just barely made it to the lot and had to be pushed the remaining distance. So heat, lights and radio decimated the expected range but we already knew that.

Love the looks of BMWs but i have to wonder why car companies don't put these drivetrains in existing vehicles that sell well... prius would be more popular if they used the corolla body. chevy volt would be more popular in the cruze body. it seems the design was intended to hinder growth at the rate needed.

 

[Reefering1]

Gas pumps also require power btw. Paying for your gas requires electricity. Producing gas requires electiricy.
But I do agree there's work to be done to store electricity.

I do think "they", "we", will figure out how to make electric cars a realistic option. Just don't see that happening as fast as the mandates.
Everything we do requires or requires electricity. It's a fundamental part of modern society. As is petroleum.

 

[A_Blind_Reefer]

No no no no. I haven’t been wrong, ever. I can’t be wrong. I’m 100% sure.

I was wrong once, but that was when I thought I was wrong….in the end I wasn’t. Ha. I’m just wrong altogether

 

[blaxsun]

Love the looks of BMWs but i have to wonder why car companies don't put these drivetrains in existing vehicles that sell well... prius would be more popular if they used the corolla body. chevy volt would be more popular in the cruze body. it seems the design was intended to hinder growth at the rate needed.

That's what BMW is doing, which is going to allow them to scale their entire lineup to gas/diesel/EV/hybrid as needed. They've already got the i4, i5, i7 and iX3 - in addition to the (completely new platform) iX. Most of these new EVs have been rolled out in the past 2 years.

 

[Court_Appointed_Hypeman]

This is a well thought out statement, and I agree that the politicalization has significantly hurt the cause. I would disagree that all climate change activists are the most polarized. I think it often comes across that way because frankly a lot of folks are quite worried or even scared of what is to come - breeding passion that can come across as being fanatical.

When we see an article that says climate change may lead to a collapse of the North Atlantic Current in our lifetime, or that major coastal cities may be under water in the next 30 years it’s comes across as sensational because it’s nothing we’ve ever seen happen; thus, our brain has no reference to make it seem plausible. However, if you read that smoking increases your risk of lung cancer or early mortality in generally, most people buy that and at least want to make the lifestyle change. Smoking does mean for sure something bad is going to happen to you, it’s increasing the risk (albeit by a lot). Same thing is true for raising global carbon and temperature, do we know exactly when or what is exactly going to happen? No, but there are a whole bunch of intelligent people who study and build computer models to project these things, and they do this for a living. They all keep telling us something bad is going to happen. Not the least of which is the collapse of an entire ecosystem (coral reefs). Nevertheless, some of us keep listening to the people who’s job it is to get people to vote for them, none of whom have a PhD in climatology or similar, and somehow that just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I’m kindof surprised by all the responses on here, I honestly assumed people who loved coral enough to have them in their home and spend all their money and time taking care of them wouldn’t be so indifferent to their extinction.

No, look back at opposition during those "reasonable consensus issues"

It's the same exact attacks, down to "why can't the be reasonable now like they were back with x" every single step of the way, from horse poop, to clean water, to clean air.

It is a fantasy that people were more reasonable when pushing for progress.

Especially if you look at how many bombings there were in the name of eco terrorism up through to the 80s.

This is a dumb fantasy that there ever was civility or easily gained concensus any step of the way.

 

[Court_Appointed_Hypeman]

It speaks to the laziness, cowardice and myopia of the debate that you can't even whisper the plain and obvious upstream problem, human overpopulation, without being immediately shut down. The two political extremes will accuse you of being either a baby killer or a fascist endorsing genocide if you so much as whisper human population as a variable in environmental destruction.

The refusal to confront human population further originates with a fundamental psychological rejection of any perceived menace to the ego. That is, people hold their own personal selves as some kind of ultimate, supreme value and by extension reject any challenge to limitless human population growth. This is quite a crude, flawed, incorrect and simple-minded way to conceptualize the world and humanity, but it runs deep.

We've even extended this subconscious notion to some of our material things. Two or three decades ago, there was quite a lot of alarm about destruction of wildlife habitat and open space as consequences of urban sprawl. But now you can hardly mention this issue because of a perceived threat to human dwellings and by extension humans in general along with the individual ego. The same goes for agriculture. In the US alone, millions of acres of wildlife habitat and elbow room for people are degraded or destroyed every year by development and agricultural intensification. Yet this is completely ignored by media and policymakers. Even professionals who work in conservation are timid to discuss habitat destruction out loud. Human conversion of land to farms and cities is just taken as an inevitability or inviolable right, even while numerous options for better use of land area exist....

https://www.themeateater.com/conservation/wildlife-management/seeing-fewer-mule-deer-turkeys-and-ducks-thank-americas-habitat-crisis





.

That's malthusian garbage

 

[Lasse]

If I was a legacy car manufacturer I would be extremely concerned about the massive amount of Chinese EVs flooding the markets as we speak. I seem them all the time here

I think that people in North America do not - of obvious reasons - understand how fast things develop here in Europe. 2022 - 79.3 % of all new passenger cars that was sold in Norway was EV cars. And we European do not understand how fast things develop in China and India. In march this year - Renault introduce the European version of their Chines build
Kwid K-ZE - in Europe Dacia Spring. Cost around €18000 in France

Those things are quick, that's for sure. I think the i8 looks like the batmobile, I like it. Maybe if they played engines sounds and were modifiable.. I just don't think we're there yet, or will be in next 7 years. I'm in FL, what happens when a hurricane hits and we don't have power for a week or 2? Everybody is stuck in their homes with no means to help themselves or families? To be mandated means if you don't go along you're stuck with a old car that you can't get parts to repair anymore.. feels like a control mechanism to me. I may be ignorant about alot if this, but I know when I'm losing my rights

Knit to the reefing hobby - there was guy here that manage his reef aquarium to work during a hurricane power cut with help of his EV battery.....

Sincerely Lasse