question about the primary polls and media

[surfn]

this isn't meant to be a political thread, but more so just trying to figure out why the media "projects" winners so early.

only 13% of precincts reporting and they can reliably call a winner? isn't this what got the media into trouble when they tried to call the 2000 presidential race?

(I do realize clinton is running uncontested b/c of that democratic snafu in the ranks...but still)

 

[Paintguru]

It all has to do with statistics. Occasionally they are wrong, but the majority of the time it comes out as correct.

 

[Azurel]

Agree with Paintguru......Seems though more and more they do get it wrong or at least the exit polling gets it wrong......Cause then your basing what the polls are saying on what people tell you when they leave the polls. Then you have to take in consideration if they told the truth or not......But most of the time they get it right often enough for them to continue to do it.

 

[Paintguru]

The problem with this is projecting a winner BEFORE all the polls are closed. I think this should be illegal, as the media can then really almost rig an election. Even for the general presidential election I almost think they shouldn't be allowed to post results for the eastern states until the west is done, but that just won't happen in the 24 hour news cycle that we are in today.