4FordFamily
Tang, Angel, and Wrasse Nerd!
View Badges
Super Moderator
Ultimate Member
Reef Squad
Partner Member 2027
Excellence Award
Reef Tank 365
Expert Contributor
Article Contributor
Hospitality Award
INDMAS Member
My Tank Thread
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2015
- Messages
- 20,512
- Reaction score
- 45,805
- Location
- Carmel, Indiana
- What state or country do you live in
- Indiana
I had this rant earlier on another thread, and thought I might encourage more debate and viewpoints. Please, if you cannot have a constructive debate without getting upset, attacking others, or considering other viewpoints please move along.
Mods please close this thread if it gets out of hand. I am curious how many of us feel about this topic.
I preface by saying that my beliefs on this have "evolved" over the past decade.
Begin rant:
On the topic of agendas:
Notice the narrative has changed from global warming to "climate change" so now nearly any climate occurrence can be blamed on humans to follow an agenda. Perhaps that's a mere coincidence although many of us believe we see a pattern.
The data initially used to predict doomsday at the hands of global warming had 30 years or so of "normalized" (essentially omitted) "outlier" data that showed global cooling. Some experts say we are actually seeing global cooling.
A few things to think about:
1) We have been moving out of an ice age for a very long time (as a general very long term trend -- we were warming before SUV's existed)
2) Those pushing this so heavily are involved with the politicians trying to tax (and therefor generate revenue from) greenhouse gas emissions. Is it really about "saving the earth"?
3) Climate patterns have short term (5-10 year somewhat regular patterns such as La Niña and El Niño) and also sporadic patterns. No computer system on earth is complex enough to understand or accurately predict them - far too many dependent variables. 50 years, 100 years of a pattern is minuscule in the big picture. Analyzing such a small dataset with such a wide variance in statistical outcomes with exponentially more dependent variables than any of us could ever hope to understand and then to infer anything from this is dangerous and fret with potential fallacies and misunderstandings. One thing repeatedly forgotten in practice but taught adamantly regarding statistics and even the scientific method is that correlation does NOT equal causality. This becomes more true with the above constraints and concerns.
Now I am not saying that humans aren't destroying the earth - we ABSOLUTELY are. Deforestation, pollution, severe littering, "overhunting", overfishing, the list goes on and on and on.
My other point is that even if we were a statistically significant contributor TO global warming (I'm not saying that we are or aren't, I see scientists change their mind on this regularly including some of the most word renown on the subject matter I'm not smart enough to conclude either way), the next logical question is this, "Is this really something we should spend resources to try to combat?" If we removed every passenger car off of the roads in the US it would impact greenhouse gases less than if we removed all cows. Is either really a good choice? (I.E. "unit of benefit" vs "total economic loss"?) no, probably not.
Wouldn't our efforts and focus be much better spent on things we can have a marginal impact on? Deforestation, reducing waste/littering, changing people's attitudes about our planet and the creatures that live on it (which could foster an entirely new era of problem solving for both the public and private sector), cleaning our oceans, finding more sustainable ways to obtain natural resources that we can replenish and reharvest?
That's my ultimate point. IMO global warming is shady, the climate change wordsmithing further casts a further shade factor on the ordeal, and the marginal impact we can change with even the most extreme measures is probably statistically irrelevant-- or at least not the best use of our time/focus when we can have a much better net impact on our planet with a plethora of other focus' that generate less money (for individuals and institutions - not for the actual betterment of the planet) and votes than the "climate change" movement.
I do look at the world through an economist's lense, with a heavy dose of psychology. This is only my opinion, I am of course open to many others. Just be careful what data you use when making arguments. Follow the money, notice who funds them. This transcends most debates and debacles - not just this one.
What are your thoughts? I welcome subject matter experts (that I am not) and other viewpoints.
Mods please close this thread if it gets out of hand. I am curious how many of us feel about this topic.
I preface by saying that my beliefs on this have "evolved" over the past decade.
Begin rant:
On the topic of agendas:
Notice the narrative has changed from global warming to "climate change" so now nearly any climate occurrence can be blamed on humans to follow an agenda. Perhaps that's a mere coincidence although many of us believe we see a pattern.
The data initially used to predict doomsday at the hands of global warming had 30 years or so of "normalized" (essentially omitted) "outlier" data that showed global cooling. Some experts say we are actually seeing global cooling.
A few things to think about:
1) We have been moving out of an ice age for a very long time (as a general very long term trend -- we were warming before SUV's existed)
2) Those pushing this so heavily are involved with the politicians trying to tax (and therefor generate revenue from) greenhouse gas emissions. Is it really about "saving the earth"?
3) Climate patterns have short term (5-10 year somewhat regular patterns such as La Niña and El Niño) and also sporadic patterns. No computer system on earth is complex enough to understand or accurately predict them - far too many dependent variables. 50 years, 100 years of a pattern is minuscule in the big picture. Analyzing such a small dataset with such a wide variance in statistical outcomes with exponentially more dependent variables than any of us could ever hope to understand and then to infer anything from this is dangerous and fret with potential fallacies and misunderstandings. One thing repeatedly forgotten in practice but taught adamantly regarding statistics and even the scientific method is that correlation does NOT equal causality. This becomes more true with the above constraints and concerns.
Now I am not saying that humans aren't destroying the earth - we ABSOLUTELY are. Deforestation, pollution, severe littering, "overhunting", overfishing, the list goes on and on and on.
My other point is that even if we were a statistically significant contributor TO global warming (I'm not saying that we are or aren't, I see scientists change their mind on this regularly including some of the most word renown on the subject matter I'm not smart enough to conclude either way), the next logical question is this, "Is this really something we should spend resources to try to combat?" If we removed every passenger car off of the roads in the US it would impact greenhouse gases less than if we removed all cows. Is either really a good choice? (I.E. "unit of benefit" vs "total economic loss"?) no, probably not.
Wouldn't our efforts and focus be much better spent on things we can have a marginal impact on? Deforestation, reducing waste/littering, changing people's attitudes about our planet and the creatures that live on it (which could foster an entirely new era of problem solving for both the public and private sector), cleaning our oceans, finding more sustainable ways to obtain natural resources that we can replenish and reharvest?
That's my ultimate point. IMO global warming is shady, the climate change wordsmithing further casts a further shade factor on the ordeal, and the marginal impact we can change with even the most extreme measures is probably statistically irrelevant-- or at least not the best use of our time/focus when we can have a much better net impact on our planet with a plethora of other focus' that generate less money (for individuals and institutions - not for the actual betterment of the planet) and votes than the "climate change" movement.
I do look at the world through an economist's lense, with a heavy dose of psychology. This is only my opinion, I am of course open to many others. Just be careful what data you use when making arguments. Follow the money, notice who funds them. This transcends most debates and debacles - not just this one.
What are your thoughts? I welcome subject matter experts (that I am not) and other viewpoints.
Last edited: