I would say knowledge always! I have had a reef tank do great and stable without a sump, and skimmer and both are expensive. Knowledge is important because it keeps you from making mistakes later on which will cost you money!!
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I cannot agree, having been on both sides of the divide. Automation EXCLUDES failure points. If you are budget constrained, you must allocate a lot more time to your marine husbandry. I have a very successful 15 year old 500 gal tank and automation has been a God send ... automation costs money.Knowledge hands down. That having been said this is an expensive hobby and spending money can increase the ease with which we keep corals. I say this to a point. The more we rely on automation the more failure points we add into the system. Like I've said in other posts I'm setting up my acro dominant system and adopting the method of KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid). The less I rely on bells and whistles and build in more redundancy the less there is to go wrong. And I just contradicted myself, because redundancy costs money!
This is an old thread, but interesting. I would say a person with money and limited knowledge has a much higher chance of failure vs. the person with a limited budget and knowledge. Give an experienced reef keeper a 75g glass box and a $500 budget. I am willing to bet after a year their tank will be doing better than someone who doesn't do their research, and has a $3000 budget.