Longterm you have to use something. Water changes in itself is not going to keep a tank healthy over time. Whether it be skimmer, refugium, carbon dosing(which requires skimmer to be effective), other chemical remove method, or something more old school like a DSB you simply have to have an export for nitrates.i don’t use both, My tank has been setup for 5-6 months and i have had no issues. I have a bunch of different corals and they thrive. I do water changes every other - every other two weeks.
For example if your tank produces 100 nitrates per week and you do a 50% water change weekly the first week the nitrates drop to 50. The end of the next week nitrates are at 150 (50+100) and you do a 50% change again your nitrates are now at 75. Every week it would go up. No matter what you do water changes are not enough to control nitrates over the long term. There is some natural nitrate export processes that happen in live rock/sand/etc, but it would be extremely rare that would be sufficient longterm. They are great at converting amonia and nitrite, but not so good at nitrate removal.