Many asked about tariffs . . . .

[Bohemian Waxwing]

I’m totally behind that. I love that this place is my escape from politics and the endless fighting. I just happen to enjoy the ebb and flow of the markets and economics

(Good luck tomorrow o_O)

 

[Garf]

(Good luck tomorrow o_O)

That is the most unsettling gif I've ever seen, kudos

 

[crazyfishmom]

It goes one of four ways.

(1) They keep prices level and eat the tariff. Not happening.

(2) They pass the tariff down to the consumer. Probably will try but the dynamics of pricing elasticity and supply/demand are real...especially for countries with really high tariffs levied. They could also try to shift capacity to non-US markets but again supply/demand. That will just drive down prices in those countries. The vendor kind of gets screwed either way here.

(3) They try to spread the cost across all customers including those outside the U.S. In this way non-U.S. customers subsidize the tariff. Cost increases are less noticeable. Thats what really happens with all tariffs if you study or are familiar with how companies handle international pricing and incremental margin vs capacity analysis.

(4) Like you said, they sell less in the US and raise prices outside the US to offset. I mean they could do this, but #3 likely has better math for them.

In reality probably a combination of all 4, but mostly #2-4.

Well said and agreed.

 

[W31Olds]

I was considering upgrading to a larger tank as early as Jan. but may reconsider as prices of equipment will certainly rise for the foreseeable future. I realize ours is an expensive hobby but think many people may hold off on a large purchase out of fear or waiting for prices to stabilize hopefully at lower levels. I feel for the LFS owners whose business models have been upended by Tariffs.

 

[Pridedcloth3]

I really only buy from domestic sellers that are heavy in collecting in the gulf so I don't see them affecting me much. My second tank is 100% gulf from the rocks to the daggerblade shrimp to the random goby to the possibly grouper to the mantis shrimp. If it didn't come from Florida it ain't in there. As far as coral goes, the stuff most period wasn't is already mass propagated in the US already.

 

[Bohemian Waxwing]

It goes one of four ways.

(1) They keep prices level and eat the tariff. Not happening.

(2) They pass the tariff down to the consumer. Probably will try but the dynamics of pricing elasticity and supply/demand are real...especially for countries with really high tariffs levied. They could also try to shift capacity to non-US markets but again supply/demand. That will just drive down prices in those countries. The vendor kind of gets screwed either way here.

(3) They try to spread the cost across all customers including those outside the U.S. In this way non-U.S. customers subsidize the tariff. Cost increases are less noticeable. Thats what really happens with all tariffs if you study or are familiar with how companies handle international pricing and incremental margin vs capacity analysis.

(4) Like you said, they sell less in the US and raise prices outside the US to offset. I mean they could do this, but #3 likely has better math for them.

In reality probably a combination of all 4, but mostly #2-4.

Some of those Aperature lights and pumps suddenly are far less appealing than their Chinese and German counterparts when the consumer is paying extra so Americans feel “great again”.

 

[jmcdona6]

Some of those Aperature lights and pumps suddenly are far less appealing than their Chinese and German counterparts when the consumer is paying extra so Americans feel “great again”.

Possibly...probably...who knows. Its a whole new world if they (the tariffs) stand. Then there is the fact we will see a lot of trade negotiations in the next year. And if nothing else, companies won't just cede US market share to make a point...its all about the profit. They will restructure, whether that is shifting production back to the U.S. or more likely other countries with more favorable tariff profiles. If they don't other companies will step in to take advantage. If there is a buck to be made the market will figure out a way.

We won't know the true fallout, good or bad, for years. And that is with consistent trade policy. My bigger concern is this yoyo effect. Tariffs, whether placing them or removing them, take years to work out. It only makes things worse to change course every election cycle. If that happens we might not ever get to an efficient marketplace.

 

[ShakeyGizzard]

slightly off topic- anyone betting what tomorrow will bring in the markets? More bloodshed or a bounce?

a few countries are already talking to this administration about dropping all tariffs, yes countries have had tariffs in place on American products for a long time, the playing field is leveled and our tariffs on imported goods can boost American manufacturing. Stay positive

 

[Bohemian Waxwing]

Possibly...probably...who knows. Its a whole new world if they (the tariffs) stand. Then there is the fact we will see a lot of trade negotiations in the next year. And if nothing else, companies won't just cede US market share to make a point...its all about the profit. They will restructure, whether that is shifting production back to the U.S. or more likely other countries with more favorable tariff profiles. If they don't other companies will step in to take advantage. If there is a buck to be made the market will figure out a way.

We won't know the true fallout, good or bad, for years. And that is with consistent trade policy. My bigger concern is this yoyo effect. Tariffs, whether placing them or removing them, take years to work out. It only makes things worse to change course every election cycle. If that happens we might not ever get to an efficient marketplace.

Maybe we will end up the same way the last time global broad range tariffs were imposed. We won’t have to fight over tank sizes for tangs cause we will be fighting with them for their nori!

 

[alindell]

I’m not too concerned about it, fish and corals are expensive as it is so what’s another $20 going to matter if I go to my LFS and buy a fish.

And I’m just going to say it and not sugar coat it, if an additional $20 is a decision maker (sure it could be more) then perhaps the salt water hobby isn’t in your budget to begin with. Food, clothing, transportation, health coverage and rent/mortgage are all higher on the totem pole. But with that said I hope everyone finds a way to work with what’s been handed to us

But it's not just $20 lol. This hobby is already too expensive and this only pushes more people away and that's not good for business. It's the continuous expensive purchases and maintenance. The baseline stuff will make everything else expensive. Basically it's a big hit to everyone. Not only will they have less money for the hobby, stores will have to pay more for goods and that will be passed on to consumers.

 

[KrisReef]

I would think that someone in the industry could be successful in removing tariffs for wild-caught livestock. The whole point of the tariffs is to bring manufacturing back to the US, and keep trade “fair” between countries. It’s not like the US can harvest and sell wild-caught animals that don’t exist in US waters. And if there’s a trade imbalance between the US and anyone else, it’s due to simply not being available here, and not anything nefarious or unfair.

We never should have pulled out of Viet Nam. We surrendered and left and wholesale genocide of human beings followed. The reefs could be ours, like Canada and Greenland should be.

So, in the big scheme of things watching the current turmoil isn’t as bad as many of the alternatives.

I do worry about the drums of Greenland but they don’t have any reefs that we need for the hobby.

Beware of believing the hype and nonsense, too much speculation may get you banned and who knows what will reallly. Happen?

 

[alindell]

We never should have pulled out of Viet Nam. We surrendered and left and wholesale genocide of human beings followed. The reefs could be ours, like Canada and Greenland should be.

So, in the big scheme of things watching the current turmoil isn’t as bad as many of the alternatives.

I do worry about the drums of Greenland but they don’t have any reefs that we need for the hobby.

Beware of believing the hype and nonsense, too much speculation may get you banned and who knows what will reallly. Happen?

Lol after WW2 America could have taken over the world.

 

[KrisReef]

Lol after WW2 America could have taken over the world.

Das it richtig!



We were negligent when we didn’t annex the South Pacific .

Miles and miles of reefs.

 

[Bohemian Waxwing]

Ya the whole world, because Korea, Nam and Afghanistan went so well lol

 

[braaap]

slightly off topic- anyone betting what tomorrow will bring in the markets? More bloodshed or a bounce?

Who cares? It’s just the ultra rich trying to cut their gambling loses. Because that’s all the stock market is. Legal gambling.

The market isn’t really a tracker for economic stability because it’s so manipulated by the mega rich.

 

[KrisReef]

Who cares? It’s just the ultra rich trying to cut their gambling loses. Because that’s all the stock market is. Legal gambling.

The market isn’t really a tracker for economic stability because it’s so manipulated by the mega rich.

I don’t recall manipulating the market?

All I asked for are the South Pacific reefs, beaches, and club Med.

 

[KrisReef]

DAM! I get some good fish imported from Fiji and AUS! This kinda sucks!

They need to be protected so in the long run it will be good for the hobby.

 

[braaap]

I don’t recall manipulating the market?

All I asked for are the South Pacific reefs, beaches, and club Med.

lol you saying you are mega rich?

Look up the Robinhood GameStop story. That’s blatant market manipulation by the giant funds.

 

[ChrisfromBrick]

Who cares? It’s just the ultra rich trying to cut their gambling loses. Because that’s all the stock market is. Legal gambling.

The market isn’t really a tracker for economic stability because it’s so manipulated by the mega rich.

my 401k says differently. Right now is becoming an enormous buying opportunity if it gets worse.

 

[KrisReef]

lol you saying you are mega rich?

Look up the Robinhood GameStop story. That’s blatant market manipulation by the giant funds.

You would do it to if you could. It’s a human trait to manipulate others. The species has a serious deficiency and everybody plays, my friend.

I am a very rich person of moderate means. I have more then I need but no one has everything they want.

Talking about markets and prices and fairness and goodness will not change the cost of getting anything delivered tomorrow.

But as I alluded to briefly before, I already have it all today. Thank You Jesus!