No problem. It happens that sometimes incomplete thoughts get typed in too quickly while we are busy. No worries.
Understandable that if we are missing parts of the variables the mathematical equations can be thrown. So which parts do you believe are missing? And what parts of the atsmosphric /ocean coupling are not understood well enough? I guess what I'm getting at anyone who has mentioned missing variables or the model being unreliable enough has never answered the question. But if we don't know what significant data or variables are missing, how can one deny the exsistance of climate change. Not saying improvements can't be made but knowing the amount of impact one variable has allows one to either keep it in a model or not, if needed.
Also, at what rate of change (heat/thermal) would you classify as important enough to believe climate change is from human impact? Since that is one statement climate change has stated that the rate of change. If you know I'd appreciate it, if not it's ok. I just want to ask some like yourself whom isn't convinced yet of climate change that could possibly give me a more science based answer. On the chance you have a rate of change that would change your mind. Please provide units if possible. It's just a start to see people who are not convinced l, the ability to explain their concerns in a science based train of thought. Thank you
You said:
Understandable that if we are missing parts of the variables the mathematical equations can be thrown. So which parts do you believe are missing? And what parts of the atsmosphric /ocean coupling are not understood well enough? I guess what I'm getting at anyone who has mentioned missing variables or the model being unreliable enough has never answered the question. But if we don't know what significant data or variables are missing, how can one deny the exsistance of climate change. Not saying improvements can't be made but knowing the amount of impact one variable has allows one to either keep it in a model or not, if needed.
Thank you for your reply. To qualify, I personally have exactly *zero* experience/exposure to the various climate models. I can only regurgitate/parrot what I have read various Climatologists who do work with models have commented. The comment I made regarding atmospheric/ocean coupling comes from comments Dr. Judith Curry (Who co-authored "Thermodynamics of atmospheres and oceans", 1999 and "Encylopedia of Atmospheric Sciences", 2002), and others with credentials have written about. Googling her, or say, Dr. Roy Spencer with climate model errors will bring up various comments...there are many others, I picked those two names because of the volume of content freely available and would likely come up with results in the early returned pages. Dr. Roy Spencer was one of the individuals who essentially invented the way we measure atmospheric temperature via satellite. I hesitate to provide specific links as these usually (not implying *you* would) result in a bunch of people jumping in, devolving the conversation to a criticism of any particular site that happens to host the information, thus why I invite you to do the googling yourself. Downloading the pdf's is usually worth the effort :)
You said:
Also, at what rate of change (heat/thermal) would you classify as important enough to believe climate change is from human impact? Since that is one statement climate change has stated that the rate of change. If you know I'd appreciate it, if not it's ok. I just want to ask some like yourself whom isn't convinced yet of climate change that could possibly give me a more science based answer. On the chance you have a rate of change that would change your mind. Please provide units if possible. It's just a start to see people who are not convinced l, the ability to explain their concerns in a science based train of thought. Thank you[/QUOTE]
Wow. Thoughtful question. I'm not sure I can answer in the manner you phrased the question (i.e., quantifying a threshold for rate of rise to "convince" me), but I'll do my best to answer it in a meaningful way. First there would have to be signal above the noise. I think I used a similar example earlier. If I have an instrument reading say, 20 degC, with an accuracy of +- 1 degC, what is the difference between 19.1 degC, 20.0 degC and 20.9 degC ? They are all the same number, in reality, given the known error bar of the device. But if I show a graph going from 19.1 to 20.9 on the right scale, it appears as a dramatic rise, even though, in reality it should be a flat line.
If you were to take a large portion of the popular published increase in average temperatures for the last 100 years or so, and round the numbers to the nearest whole degC, it would be a very boring flat line.
I'm more than willing to talk about the refusal to release the raw data (or the now claimed deletion of the raw data in response to Freedom of Information Act requests), the instrumentation issues, the zombie stations, the infilling, and other problems I have with the published temperature trends if you want, but I'd like to touch on a few other points in my reply.
Timing. If I take a value that follows some sort of sinusoidal trend (be it temperature, ice mass, atmospheric constituents), and I point to a date that corresponds to the positive peak in that trend, and my end date points to the negative peak (or at least sufficiently far along to make an apparent meaningful number), then extrapolate from those two points, it would appear there is a relentless trend in the direction I chose. For example, suppose arctic sea ice was at an unusually high extent when I began to fairly accurately map it. For the next 'x' period time frame it would be *expected* to decline as part of it's normal variation. But if that's my starting point, every year for the next x period time, would be a "record low" amount, irrefutable proof of anthropogenic climate change :). But if say, the trend reversed, and ice began accumulating again, I could still claim it was 'y'% less ice than the beginning time frame, while forgetting to mention that year after year it was accumulating...it's still a "decline" from when I started. In fact, if it's say 30 years positive peak to positive peak, I can claim 29 years of decline :)
One of the biggest problems with main stream media reporting, is over time, based on many conversations I have had, is the average person believes that *projected* or *predicted* "bad things" are, in fact, reality, and happening right now....and so far, the loudest voices making the predictions have a score of being 100% *wrong*. The hyperbole over sea level rise is as fine an example as any. Estimate rate of rise was recently *decreased* to approx. 3.0mm/year average from 3.8mm/year average (didn't see that plastered all over your newsfeed, I'll wager). This is on par with the same pace it's had for nearly 2 centuries...regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels. So, if it continues at that rate, and there is no reason to believe it won't, for now, we are talking about 1 foot over a time span of a century....not much to get excited about......but talk to the average person, or flip open the average media report on sea levels, and we're all going to drown immediately if we don't give the UN a zillion dollars.
Oh, and it's *all*
bad news,.....very bad news and we must *do* something about it Gloom and doom! You don't hear much about the actual *measurable*
positive results of any climate change we've experienced since the middle of the recent mini ice-age....which, as far as I can tell, has been 100% good things, but that's another conversation.
For me, it wouldn't be a simple as saying there is 'r' rate of warming over 't' time period, the earth's climate is affected by many influences with individual frequencies of cycles....so far, to me, it appears sometimes they will coincide to amplify their effects, and sometimes cancel/mitigate each other's effects, and we are not there yet in understanding the interactions of all the processes.
So while I wasn't able to answer your question with a specific number, I did do my best to explain my position and comments.