Thank you for your question. The simulation is based on an aggregation of findings from several research papers on marine ich. The purpose of the simulation is to take the findings from these research papers, apply well established statiscal principles from what we know of distributions, and "approximate" the average quarantine.
Kill was one of the hardest items to find good research around. The limited research I found basically says the only way to achieve 100% kill rate is to have the copper concentration so high that it is not viable for the fish. I did find some research that said ionic copper is far more effective from a statistical perspective, but chelated copper is very effective. That research inferred a 92% kill rate for chelated copper.
The coolest things I found from various research papers are the impact of the mucus layer on the effectiveness of copper. In short, a free-swimming ich parasite that makes it to the mucus layer gets an extra 2 to 6 hours of protection from the copper, increases its chance of becoming a cyst, which is statistically immune to copper.
As it relates to temperature, the research I did found that you need 7 degree fareinheight increase above normal temperatures of around 77 degrees to shorten the trophont stage by one day. Once you get above 82 degrees, you are meaningfully reducing the survivability of most fish at 88 to 92 degrees, which would cut 2 days; you are basically creating almost unsurvivable conditions for the fish. The general point is that increasing temperatures by a few degrees has no significant impact regardless, it is accounted for in changes to the mean length of each stage.
I constructed this simulation algorithm to help me wrap my brain around the concept of a 14-day copper treatment. What the simulations and research have shown me is that the 14-day copper treatment meaningfully reduces the likelihood of ich, but nowhere near the level you should expect from a quarantine, and 14-days is vastly inferior to 30 days of copper (17% vs 1% probability of parasites on the fish).
I like combining the human element in my research to help explain why certain beliefs are held. Experts like Jay, VetteGuy, and others are very helpful in understanding that one of the key drivers of people's desire to shorten copper treatment are the struggles of using ionic copper, which had a significant increase in fish mortality the longer the fish were exposed to it. Where chelated copper is significantly less toxic to the fish. Unfortunately, people hear "copper" and think ionic when that is just not the case these days. I always thought that people were just impatient, which is probably still true, but they justify their impatience using inappropriate facts about ionic copper. Research is fun! Knowledge is power!